Dear Clients:
After a relatively calm Monday, stock markets globally are selling off due to the start of the war in the Middle East. While energy prices are rising and headlines are unsettling, it is important to remember geopolitical shocks—though unpredictable—have historically been temporary drivers of market volatility rather than permanent determinants of long-term returns.
Nobody knows how long the war will last, but the longer it persists and the higher energy prices remain, the greater the potential economic and market impact. Traders and speculators will react quickly to unfolding news. Long-term investors—like you and like us—recognize difficult periods are a normal part of the investment journey—not a signal to abandon a sound plan.
In moments like this, we find it helpful to revisit principles that have guided our advice through prior periods of uncertainty. Below are excerpts from our two most recent client quarterly letters we believe are especially relevant today.
LEARNING TO BE COMFORTABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY (Q4-2025)
Developing the ability to be “comfortable being uncertain,” involves moving from a desire to escape the unknown to a stance of curiosity and presence.
As we begin 2026, many of us naturally evaluate the past year and consider areas for improvement. No one is perfect, and the desire to improve is healthy. Yet the future will always contain unknowns. As Voltaire observed, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” His point remains relevant today: embracing uncertainty keeps us open, curious and adaptable rather than reactive and dogmatic.
Today, psychologists increasingly recognize uncertainty as an unavoidable psychological state that, while uncomfortable, can be a major catalyst for innovation and resilience. Developing the ability to be “comfortable being uncertain,” what is known as uncertainty tolerance, involves moving from a desire to escape the unknown to a stance of curiosity and presence.
Instead of announcing to everyone that you’re eliminating sugar from your diet or not drinking alcohol, make 2026 the year to fall in love with uncertainty. Here are the best methods to develop the skills needed.
Core Strategies for Uncertainty Tolerance
• Acknowledge and Validate: Start by recognizing that feeling unsettled during uncertainty is a normal response to our biological craving for control. Intentionally “greeting” the feeling, saying, “I am experiencing a sense of uncertainty,” can create psychological distance and reduce its intensity.
• Focus on the Controllable: Try to avoid ruminating on future variables beyond your influence.
• Practice “Withholding Definition”: Avoid the urge to quickly label an unknown situation as “bad.” Staying in the experience of unfamiliarity longer allows for multiple, even conflicting, perspectives to coexist, which can lead to better problem-solving.
For the new year, let’s all embrace uncertainty, be comfortable being unfamiliar and let our minds develop. Then every area of our lives we want to enhance will improve.
THE VALUE OF PATIENCE: BEHAVIORAL INSIGHTS (Q3-2025)
Market plunges and the accompanying frightening headlines can tempt investors to abandon long-term plans in favor of fleeing to “safety.” Behavioral finance tells us that while this may provide temporary emotional relief, it often comes at the cost of future returns. The only way to take part in all market gains is to endure the temporary setbacks, resisting the urge to sell during times of stress.
As behavioral finance specialist Jay Mooreland, CFP of the Behavioral Finance Network notes, “selling during scary and uncertain times usually is referred to as ‘getting to safety.’ While getting to safety provides an immediate psychological benefit, it often results in a very real financial cost. Next time you feel the need to ‘get to safety’ perhaps it can be re-framed as ‘reducing my future return.’ Because no one sells and gets back in at the bottom. The only way to participate in all the gains of the market is to ride out all the temporary losses that come along the way.”
Remarkably, after hitting its low in April, the S&P 500 staged a rapid rebound, fully recovering within days and going on to set new all-time highs later in the year.
Periods like this are unsettling, but they are also a normal part of long-term investing. Our role is to help you stay disciplined, focused and aligned with your long-term goals despite short-term uncertainty. As always, our Directors of Client Service — Matt Kirr and Zach Greiner, CFP — are available to discuss your questions and concerns at any time. Contact them by phone at 812-376-9444/800-808-9444 or matt@kirrmar.com/zach@kirrmar.com
