Did tide finally turn in favor of “value” stocks in September?

The following is an excerpt from Kirr, Marbach & Co.’s third quarter client letter.

The third quarter of 2019 marked the first time since 1997 when the S&P 500 had a total return greater than 20% in the first nine months of the year. While we’re pleased this year finally broke a streak of 21 straight years without a 20%+ total return for the S&P 500 through the first nine months of the year, we’re even more encouraged the relative performance pendulum began to swing strongly from “growth” towards “value” in September, a trend we hope continues.

According to Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s business school professor and mentor, “though the stock market functions as a voting machine in the short run, it acts as a weighing machine in the long run.” What this means is fear and greed play important roles when votes are being cast, but fundamentals are what matter and eventually determine stock prices.

As you’re well aware, the past five years in particular have been extraordinarily difficult for active, “value” investors like us. We believe to produce better-than-average long-term results, you need to own a portfolio that’s different than the average. We evaluate companies as if we’re buying the entire business. We look for stocks our analysis says trade at a reasonable discount to what that business is worth and have a future catalyst in sight to narrow that gap.

While we firmly believe that strategy is sound, it has certainly not been rewarding recently. We’ve been frustrated stocks we buy at cheap valuations (i.e. could double and still be attractive) have struggled while stocks with absurdly high valuations (i.e. not profitable anytime soon and could be cut in half and still be overpriced) have soared. However, a shift in fortunes may have begun in September, as the S&P 500 Value index dominated the S&P 500 Growth index in September, leading to a solid outperformance by “value” in the third quarter.

One good month/quarter for “value” obviously doesn’t necessarily mean a good turn in fortune for “value” has begun and planning a parade is certainly premature. There have been false starts for “value” before. Still, a shrimp cocktail looks like a feast to a starving man and we’re seeing some cracks in the “growth at any price” fan base and a long-overdue return to sanity by investors.

Trouble in “FAANG”-land could mark a top for the mindless, passive indexing fad. Shares of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet (parent of Google), together the FAANG stocks, have enjoyed tremendous momentum of the upward variety. Their ever-increasing prices have led to continually higher capitalization-weights in indices like the S&P 500 (these five stocks are 1% of the stocks in the S&P 500, but account for a whopping 20% of the capitalization weight), which has in turn led to a constant flow of buying as the mindless, passive indexers deploy their increasing volume of inflows from investors attracted by the performance and misleadingly “free” cost of index funds.

It’s no coincidence Morningstar reported as of the end of August, passive index funds had overtaken actively-managed, stock-picking funds in assets for the first time, $4.27 trillion vs. $4.25 trillion. Further, in the past decade, passive index funds added $1.36 trillion in net flows, while activelymanaged funds shed $1.32 trillion.

Trees don’t grow to the sky and thorny issues have arisen that threaten to interrupt this fairy tale. Technology giants like Facebook and Google are targets of increased governmental regulation, as lawmakers worry about abuses that accompany these companies’ growing power. The roster of companies seeking to eat some of Netflix’s streaming lunch grows by the day. The upshot is Facebook ended the third quarter of 2019 down 18.1% from its high (7/25/18), Apple down 3.5% (10/3/18), Amazon down 14.9% (9/4/18), Netflix down 36.1% (7/9/18) and Google down 5.8% (4/29/19).

It’s an interesting coincidence the very stocks that have powered the performance of index funds are stumbling just as index funds have surpassed actively-managed funds in assets. It will be equally interesting indeed to see what happens if/when the capital that has flowed into passively“managed” funds heads for the exit and mindless buying turns into mindless selling, leading to even more mindless selling. At that point, “sell to whom?” will be the trillion dollar question. We’ll bring the popcorn!

Buffett famously said, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” The tide may indeed be going out for the overpriced/overhyped/over-owned technology darlings, public and private.

The opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author as of the date the article was published. These opinions have not been updated or supplemented and may not reflect the author’s views today. The information provided in these articles does not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision and should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular stock or other investment.